查询词典 forecasting theory

These nonlinear chaos dynamitic models forecast oil consumption quantity of China. In this dissertation, it has mainly studied the fractural dimension measure to petroleum economics system, the phase space reconstruction modeling and prediction techniquesto economic chaotic time series. It puts forward chaos dynamitic models, which are forecasting model for oil consumption. Corresponding countermeasures of the oil supply-security of China are suggested by analyzing the forecasting results and the problems existing in petroleum economic system of China, especially aiming at the balance between oil production and consumption quantity.

本论文主要研究了石油经济系统复杂性的分数维度量、经济混沌时间序列的相空间重构技术、建模和预测技术；建立了石油经济系统的混沌动力学模型：石油消费的预测模型；并将此模型应用于全国的石油经济系统研究之中，对全国石油消费量做出预测，根据预测结果分析我国石油经济系统中存在的问题，并提出对策。

These nonlinear chaos dynamitic models forecast oil consumption quantity of China. In this dissertation, it has mainly studied the fractural dimension measure to petroleum economics system, the phase space reconstruction modeling and prediction techniques to economic chaotic time series. It puts forward chaos dynamitic models, which are forecasting model for oil consumption. Corresponding countermeasures of the oil supply-security of China are suggested by analyzing the forecasting results and the problems existing in petroleum economic system of China, especially aiming at the balance between oil production and consumption quantity.

本论文主要研究了石油经济系统复杂性的分数维度量、经济混沌时间序列的相空间重构技术、建模和预测技术；建立了石油经济系统的混沌动力学模型：石油消费的预测模型；并将此模型应用于全国的石油经济系统研究之中，对全国石油消费量做出预测，根据预测结果分析我国石油经济系统中存在的问题，并提出对策。

Partial least-square regressive can give the most expositive elements to establish the forecasting model . Combined with proportion method , it can reflect the seasonal change factors causing the variation of electricity consumption , which makes the forecasting of monthly electricity consumption more accurate .

偏最小二乘方法能够提取若干对系统具有最佳解释能力的综合变量来建立预测模型，该方法与比重法结合应用于月售电量的预测之中，能更好地体现引起月售电量变化的平稳因素，季节突变因素的周期性，使得月售电量的预测更加准确。

Aiming at the major influencing factor of the logistics cost of coal enterprise as well as the non-linear characteristic of the coal enterprise logistics cost and the superiority that the neural network has in the solution of complex nonlinear system question, propos to use the BP neural network to do the forecasting of the logistics cost, establishs the forecast model of the logistics cost and do simulation and forecasting by frondose dates, the result indicates the precision of this forecast method is high, the convergent rate is quick, is one feasible forecast method.

重点针对影响煤炭企业物流成本的因素以及煤炭企业物流成本所具有的非线性特点和神经网络在解决复杂非线性系统问题方面所具有的优势，提出了采用BP神经网络来进行物流成本预测的方法。建立了基于BP神经网络的物流成本预测模型并应用具体数据对模型进行了模拟和预测，结果表明该方法预测精度高，是一种实际可行的预测方法。

The results show this forecasting method is effective for modeling and forecasting for gyroscopic drift.

预测结果表明，这种预测方法对于陀螺漂移建模及预报是可行的。

Chapter 2 introduces the current research situation of hydrological forecasting and emphasizes on the forecasting method of neural network.

第二章综述了水文预报问题的研究现状，就国内外对水文预报的各种处理方法进行了总结分析和比较。

The electricity price curve in electricity market possesses the features of multicycle and strong fluctuation, whereas there is evident error in the prediction by grey GM(1,1) model with exponential growth, for this reason the authors propose a period residual modification based grey price forecasting model, which not only inherits the advantages of grey model but also makes the forecasting curve fluctuated by means of smooth processing of original data, improvement of initial condition and period residual modification.

电力市场中的电价曲线具有多周期、跳跃等特性，而呈指数增长的灰色GM(1，1)模型预测误差较大，为此，文章提出了基于残差周期修正的灰色电价预测模型。

Due to the lack of data, the parameter of forecasting emergence of regional CBW is built by the traditional phenological model. With the standard of this, model parameter of forecasting occurrence of regional cotton bollworm is applied.

由于数据缺乏，采用传统有效积温的方法，建立了区域性棉铃虫羽化预测的参数，以此为标准，建立区域性棉铃虫发生期预测的模型参数。

Load forecasting for power system is one of the important task of power utilities. Accurate load forecasting is helpful to planning generators starting and stopping in the interior of the electrical networks economically and reasonably, preserving the security and stability of power system, reducing the unnecessary circumvolving repertory capacity, making planning to overhaul the units in reason, ensuring the normal production and life of the society, effectively reducing the cost of generating electricity, increasing the economical and social benefit.

电力负荷预测是供电部门的重要工作之一，准确的负荷预测，可以经济合理地安排电网内部发电机的启停，保持电网运行的安全稳定性，减少不必要的旋转储备容量，合理安排机组检修计划，保证社会的正常生产和生活，有效地降低发电成本，提高经济效益和社会效益。

Combinationforecasting colligates information of all kinds of forecasting method, so thismethod avoids losing information in single forecasting model and reducesrandomcity, improves the precision of predication.

针对运输问题&悖论&，论文提出了全新的运输问题的模型—变约束运输问题模型，并对变约束运输问题的求解方法进行了探讨。

Warden: That's a beautiful dog, but don't bring her again.

那是条漂亮的狗，但是不要再把她带来了。

You get up in the morning – no hangover!

你第二天早上起来的时候—不会宿醉！