查询词典 forecasting theory

The specifically used learning-theories are Thorndike"s, error-tried learning-theory Pavlov"s conditioning learning-theory, Watson"s learning-theory, Guthrie"s neighboring learning-theory, Estes"s sampling learning-theory, Skinner"s manipulating learning-theory, Wertheimer"s learning-theory, Wulf"s learning-theory, Lewin"s surroundings cognizing learning-theory, Piaget"s constructing learning-theory, Bruner"s cognizing structure learning-theory, Ausubel"s assimilating cognize learning-theory, processing information learning-theory, Tolman"s signal learning-theory, Grgne"s accumulating learning-theory, Bandura"s society learning-theory, Rogers"s learning-theory.

具体所应用的学习理论包括：桑代克试误学习理论；巴甫洛夫条件作用学习理论；华生学习理论；格思里邻近学习理论；埃斯蒂斯抽样学习理论；斯金纳操作学习理论；韦特墨学习理论；沃尔夫学习理论；勒温认知一场学习理论；皮亚杰建构学习理论；布鲁纳认知结构学习理论；奥苏贝尔认知同化学习理论；信息加工学习理论；托尔曼信号学习理论；加涅积累学习理论；班杜拉社会学习理论和罗杰斯学习理论。

According to the features of load forecasting of small region,a decoupling mechanism based error analysis model and corresponding forecasting mechanism are proposed in which the short-term load forecasting is divided into two parts,namely load level forecasting and per unit curve forecasting.

针对小地区短期负荷预测的特点，提出了基于解耦机制的误差分析模型和预测机制，将短期负荷预测分为负荷水平预测和标幺曲线预测两部分。

The paper summarizes theories and practices concerning data mining at the beginning. According to actual conditions of data forecasting, the paper particularizes two basic tasks in data mining, namely, exploring data analysis and forecasting modeling for classification, and employs them in load forecasting practically. Then a special short-term load-forecasting arithmetic is forwarded based on the former work, which can efficiently take into account weather effects on the load, and hence improve the accuracy of load forecasting.

本文概述了数据挖掘技术的有关内容；并针对负荷预测的实际情况，详细介绍了数据挖掘中的两个基本任务：探索性数据分析和用于分类的预测建模，并将其运用于负荷预测之中；根据所得结果提出了一种基于数据挖掘的短期负荷预测算法，该算法能够有效的考虑气象因素对负荷的影响，从而提高了负荷预测的精度。

Among used machine learning methods, the gradient descent method is widely used to train various classifiers, such as Back-propagation neural network and linear text classifier. However, the gradient descent method is easily trapped into a local minimum and slowly converges. Thus, this study presents a gradient forecasting search method based on prediction methods to enhance the performance of the gradient descent method in order to develop a more efficient and precise machine learning method for Web mining.However, a prediction method with few sample data items and precise forecasting ability is a key issue to the gradient forecasting search method. Applying statistic-based prediction methods to implement GFSM is unsuitable because they require a large number of data items to model a prediction model. In the contrast with statistic-based prediction methods, GM(1,1) grey prediction model does not need a large number of data items to build a prediction model, and it has low computational load. However, the original GM(1,1) grey prediction model uses a mathematical hypothesis and approximation to transform a continuous differential equation into a discrete difference equation in order to model a forecasting model.

其中梯度法是一个最常被使用来实现机器学习的方法之一，然而梯度法具有学习速度慢以及容易陷入局部最佳解的缺点，因此，本研究提出一个梯度预测搜寻法则(gradient forecasting search method， GFSM)来改善传统梯度法的缺点，用来提升一些以梯度学习法则为基础的分类器在资讯探勘上的效率与正确性；而一个所需资料量少、计算复杂度低且精确的预测模型是梯度预测搜寻法能否有效进行最佳解搜寻之关键因素，传统统计为基础之预测方法的缺点是需要较大量的数据进行预测，因此计算复杂度高，灰色预测模型具有建模资料少且计算复杂度低等优点，然而灰色预测理论以连续之微分方程式为基础，并且透过一些数学上的假设与近似，将连续之微分方程式转换成离散之差分方程式来对离散型资料进行建模及预测，这样的作法不尽合理，且缺乏数学理论上的完备性，因为在转换过程中已经造成建模上的误差，且建模过程仅考虑相邻的两个资料点关系，无法正确反应数列未来的变化趋势。

Based on AFCT, a new adaptive staring principle is established using floating threshold which is calculated by system reference model based on extrapolation method and linear regression algorithm. The principle of "forecasting model on line identifier"and"forecasting model parameters'selftuner"are put forward. In the module of"adjustment mechanism", the forecasting method of break points is introduced to fulfill control functions to "forecasting model parameters'self tuner".

本文详细讨论了针对输电线路主保护的自适应预测模型的建立方法，应用时间序列法和自回归模型或动平均自回归模型建立了精确反映保护对象状态量的系统预测模型，以自回归模型为例给出了"预测模型在线辨识"环节和"模型参数自适应校正"环节的算法，应用"适应机构"实现其对"模型参数自适应校正"环节的控制作用，应用并行计算算法实现了在继电保护中的"预测模型在线辨识"环节，使系统状态预测模型自适应于变化的电力系统。

The concept and the classification of forecasting are addressed. Aiming at the disadvantages of the current forecasting models, such as requirement for more data and narrow application extent, an improved GM(1,1)-transfer function-noise model for forecasting is proposed. In the first stage, the GM(1,1) model improving the generation method of neighborhood system is adopted so as to fulfil the forecasting by only using a few of data.

介绍了预测的概念与分类；针对现有产品回收预测模型数据需求量大和适用范围窄的不足，提出了改进GM(1，1)/传递函数噪声两阶段预测模型；产品回收初期数据缺乏，主要采用改进了邻域系生成方法的IGM(1，1)模型，从而实现少量数据情况下的准确预测。

By study of the statistic characteristics of flood forecasting errors and their confidence intervals for Nushi watershed at Sanhuajian of the Yellow River and on the basis of a comparison of the precision criterion currently used for flood forecasting with the result of the error confidence interval method, it is concluded that the error of flood forecasting is of the characteristic of skew probability distribution, and that the evaluated results of forecasting errors are different by the above two methods.

因此，本文在三花间伊河卢氏流域洪水预报的基础上研究了误差置信限及误差置信限评定方法，并将误差置信限评定结果与现行水情预报精度标准[1]评定结果进行了比较。1 现行洪水预报评定方法流域洪水预报精度评定内容包括洪峰流量、峰现时间和洪量等。洪水预报误差指标有绝对误差、相对误差和确定性系数3种。预报误差小于许可误差时为合格预报。

So this paper applied Grey forecasting GM (1,1) model and its generated models, the Grey Markov numerical forecasting model and Comprehension model, to develop a net interest margin change forecasting model, a net interest margin forecasting model, a new decision model concerned with commercial bank interest-sensitive assets portfolio and a new expected return decision model of interest-sensitive assets portfolio.

本文以灰预测GM(1，1)模式，以及其衍生之灰马可夫预测模式与内涵模式，构建新的净利息边际变动率预测模式、净利息边际金额预测模式、利率敏感性资产投资组合最适配置决策模式与利率敏感性资产投资组合最适配置预期报酬率决策模式等利率敏感性缺口管理预测模式。

In addition, the methods of abnormal data processing based on wavelet theory are presented dentally and simulated experimentally. The results of Nanjing load forecasting show that the WVNN method possesses higher forecasting accuracy and better adaptability than artificial neural network forecasting methods which considers day average and day type.

通过对南京地区电力负荷数据的实验结果表明，较之考虑天气因素和日类型的人工神经网络方法预测方法，采用本文所提出的模型有较高的预测精度与较强的适应性。

Based on consider hereinbefore, this dissertation discusses several aspects on the problem of the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources as follows:①reviewed entirely the origin and evolvement of the concept "sustainable development", stated and commented the study status in queue on"sustainable development"around national and international range, thorough discussed the science connotation about the concept "sustainable development";②looked back and commented across-the aboard some furthest basic concept and proposition related to groundwater resources, put forward self opinions on a few existent mistake points of view and chaos understandings;③expatiated entirely on the content and meaning of the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, contrast with the traditional methods of groundwater resources calculation and evaluation, combined example to show the application of this theory;④thorough analyzed the difficult and complexity to forecast the groundwater resources, fully stated the traditional methods of groundwater resources forecasting, pointed out the characteristic and applying condition of these forecasting method, introduced the main ideas and methods of wavelet analysis developed recently, and the MATLAB software be known as the fifths era computer language, and its accessory wavelet analysis toolbox, applied these methods and tools to analyze the groundwater dynamic curve, adopted the B-J method and Morte-Carlo method, combined with the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, discussed the new view on the forecast of groundwater resources;⑤synthetically analyzed the characteristics and limitations of the present all kind of groundwater manage model, combined mathematical programming, mathematical statistics, random process and the theory of variation system of groundwater resources on the unite optimum attempter of surface water and groundwater, emphasized how to make the model more nicety, more simple, more practicality;⑥analyzed the inside condition and outside condition to assure the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources, the inside conditions are the follows: correct resources idea, scientific methods of resources calculation and evaluation, credible forecast methods of resources, exercisable measures of resources management, the outside conditions are the follows: the development idea of high layer, the transform of manage system, the matched policy and rule of law, the adjusted of economy lever, the improve of cultural diathesis, the boosting up of water-saving consciousness and detail measures, the control of population rising, the prevention and cure of water pollute, the renew and rebuild of ecology;⑦scan the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources from the high level of metagalaxy, earth system science, and philosophy;⑧point out the more directions on groundwater resources.

它将为制定水资源的可持续发展目标和战略决策提供科学依据，为制定社会、经济可持续发展战略提供理论基础。基于以上考虑，论文主要从以下几方面对地下水资源可持续开发问题进行了比较深入的探讨：①全面回顾了"可持续发展"概念的由来与演变，对国内外"可持续发展"的研究现状进行了述评，并对"可持续发展"概念的科学内涵进行了深入探讨；②对涉及地下水资源的一些最基本的概念和命题进行了全面的回顾和评述，对目前仍然存在的一些错误观点和混乱认识提出了自己的见解；③全面阐述了地下水资源变值系统理论的内容和意义，并与传统的地下水资源计算评价方法进行了对比分析，结合实例具体说明了方法的应用；④深入分析了地下水资源预测预报工作的极端重要性和复杂性，对传统的地下水资源动态预测方法进行了全面的评述，指出了各类预测预报方法的特点及适用条件，对最近二十多年刚发展起来的小波分析技术的主要思想和方法及其应用范围，以及号称第五代计算机语言的MATLAB软件和附带的小波分析工具箱进行了介绍，并应用于地下水动态过程线的分析，采用时间序列中的B-J法，蒙特卡罗方法，与地下水资源变值系统理论相结合，探讨了地下水动态资料分析和地下水资源预测预报的新思路；⑤综合分析了现今各类地下水管理模型的特点及缺陷，将数学规划、数理统计、随机过程等与地下水变值系统理论相结合进行地表水地下水或多水源的联合优化调度，使模型更准确、更实用；⑥对保证地下水资源可持续开发的内部条件和外部条件进行了分析，内部条件主要是正确的资源观，科学的资源计算与评价方法，可靠的资源预测预报技术，可操作的资源管理措施，外部条件主要是高层发展思路、管理体制的变革、配套的政策法规、经济杠杆的调节、人文素质的提高、节水意识的增强及具体节水措施、人口增长的控制、水体污染的防治、生态的恢复和重建等；⑦从宇宙科学、地球系统科学及哲学的高度审视地下水资源的可持续开发；⑧指出了地下水资源可持续开发的进一步研究方向。

Sodium citrate; calcium carbonate; calcium hydroxide; potassium bicorbonate; magnesium carbonate; ferrous sulphate; Zinc sulphate; copper sulphate; manganese sulphate; potassium iodide; sodium selenite.

柠檬酸钠；碳酸钙；氢氧化钙；碳酸氢钾；碳酸镁；硫酸亚铁；硫酸锌；硫酸铜；硫酸锰；碘化钾；亚硒酸钠。

All this to say that I'm glad filmmaking hasn't become completely ironic. I can enjoy an ironic film as much as the next person, but they usually involve a message of some sort. One that's delivered in a smirkingly clever way that requires little in the way of talent.

所有这些都是说，我很高兴电影制作没有变成完全讽刺艺术，我可以和下一个人一样享受讽刺电影的乐趣，虽然他们经常会被划归到一定级别，技术方面不需要很高的才能。