方法

Furthermore, how to apply the model efficiently in practice is deeply discussed. As the variance produced by the forecasting model as concerned, the real-time revised method of hydrological forecasting is highlighted. Next arranged, the multi-stratum recursive prediction model is put forward to forecast the error series that is a dynamic system. Later, an error selfregressive multi-stratum recursive prediction model is set up as well as a current algorithm offered. Finally, the difference collated model and the gloss control method, which are devoted to updating the mid-long term hydrological forecasting during the meditate period, are put forward.

在综合评述中长期水文预报现有方法和模型的基础上，采用时间序列分析方法，建立中长期水文预报的时间序列组合模型，并对模型如何在实际中有效应用作了较为深入的探讨；针对模型预报所产生的误差，又重点研究了水文预报实时修正方法：提出了采用多层递阶预报方法对误差序列这一动态系统进行预报，建立了误差自回归多层递阶预报模型，并提出了较为通用的解算方法；给出了水文中长期预报中期修正的残差相关模型和总量控制方法。

The advantages and limitations of every kind of methods for calculating the failure probability is reviewed. The frist order reliability method, the second order reliability method and many kinds of boundary method have achieved remarkable success and formed nature fields of reliability. However, the precision of these methods decrease as the increase of complexity of problem. The numrical methods are versatile, except numerical intergration is only adaptable to special problems which have small number variables and regular intergral domain. Particularly, the advanced variance reduction techniques own the following character: high precision and a small amount computation. But some questions remain to study in the future because only an initial work about these techniqes is developed.

全面评述了计算失效概率各种方法的优点和局限性，其中经典的解析法包括一次可靠性方法、二次可靠性方法、一阶边界法、Vanmarcke上边界、PENT上边界和Ditlevsen二阶窄边界法，这些方法对于多设计点、变量较多且相关、密度函数不是正态以及极限状态方程较复杂的情况，其计算精度较差；而已有的数值方法却是具有较好的通用性，其中除数值积分法只对变量较少、积分域较规则的特殊问题适用外，各种数值模拟方法均具有较广的适应性，特别是各种改进的方差减小技术，精度高、计算量小，但由于其处在研究的初级阶段，还有许多问题有待于解决。

The full text is total to is divided into four chapter:Chapter 1, the relevant concept of the listed company results evaluation, that is the other the theories foundation of the chapter, and do the foul to the textual evaluation angle settle;Chapter 2, the results evaluation index sign and the index sign system, the original index sign system of comprehensive evaluation of information formation that that choice listed company publish, and introduced the in common use index sign to sieve to endow with the method of the power with index sign;Chapter 3, the comprehensive results evaluation method, this is the foundation that carries on chapter 4, that carry on theories in chapter 2 fusion, became two kinds of comprehensive evaluation methods, and carried on the des cription to the operation step of a method;Chapter 4, the substantial evidence is analytical, this is the point of the full text, the collections combines the data of tidy up the listed company, making use of two kinds of methods within chapter 3s respectively, carry on synthesize to rank, and get two kinds of methods to rank the result to look like the consistent conclusion.

全文共分四章：第一章，上市公司绩效评价的有关概念，该章是其它章节的理论基础，并对本文的评价角度做出界定；第二章，绩效评价指标及指标体系，该章选择上市公司披露的信息形成综合评价的原始指标体系，并介绍了常用的指标筛选和指标赋权的方法；第三章，综合绩效评价方法，这是进行第四章的基础，该章将第二章中的理论进行融合，形成了两种综合评价方法，并对每种方法的操作步骤进行了描述；第四章，实证分析，这是全文的重点，收集并整理上市公司的数据资料，分别利用第三章中的两种方法，进行综合排名，并得到两种方法排名结果近似一致的结论。

Quantitative methods are dominative in foreign tourism study, while Chinese researchers rarely use it for lack of training on statistics knowledge. However, quantitative research is a method which approaches to science more. In comparison with the subjectiveness of qualitative research, it is an objective, systematic and accurate method.

定量方法是国外旅游研究的主导方法，国内研究者由于缺乏统计知识的训练而较少使用定量方法，但定量研究是更接近于科学的研究方法，相对于定性方法的主观性，定量研究是一种客观的、系统的、精确的研究方法。

In theory, firstly, the numerical simulation methods, such as the boundary element method, the finite difference method and the finite element method, were utilized to calculate the distribution of electric field intensity and potential of the electron-gun system, the focusing system and the whole equipment, respectively. Then, the trajectories of the electron-beam were traced by using of the Runge-Kutta method and the Monte-Carlo method associatively. The point spread function was also calculated.

在理论分析中，先后采用边界元方法、差分方法、有限元方法等科学数值计算方法，编制程序，对X射线源的电子枪发射系统、聚焦系统以及发射系统与聚焦系统的组合系统等的电场分布进行了严格的计算，在准确求得各系统电场内各个剖分点的电场场强、偏导数等参量的基础上，采用蒙特-卡罗模拟方法和不等距龙格-库塔方法相结合，追踪由LaB_6单晶阴极表面发射出的大量电子束在电场内的运动轨迹，求出点扩展函数，并根据点扩展函数的优劣，反复调节、大量计算对比，挑选出X射线源最佳的电极结构及其组合。

Three methods and 3 calculating formula were used to choose for concrete operation according to the idea at urine iodine assayed with cerous sulfate reducing reaction by which WHO and ICCIDD draw up the preventive and curative criteria of iodine deficiency.

本文根据&WHO与ICCIDD制定的碘缺乏病防治标准与方法&中硫酸铈还原反应测定尿碘的意图，采用3种方法和3种计算公式对具体操作进行选择，并对原标准对照计算法的不合理以及计算误差对评价尿碘水平的效能进行了探讨。结果表明：（1）方法Ⅰ存在仪器误差，准确度不佳。方法Ⅱ线性关系和准确度较理想，但操作不便计算麻烦。方法Ⅲ线性关系和准确度与方法Ⅱ无差异，操作和计算简便、节约试剂。

Consequently the NN adaptive unit is added into the control loop according to the NN on-line approximate property. Lastly the chapter combines the proposed shortest path-planning method and the adaptive tracking method in order to stabilize the NWMR about a posture through the shortest path. Many simulations are carried out on MATLAB and the simulation results are very feasible and reasonable. Chapter 5 proposes a new localization method for the WMR running on inclined planes based on fusion of clinometric and an odometric data by Kalman filter.

本文首先求得了在斜面上运行的NWMR动力学系统的状态方程；接着选择了适当形式的系统输出方程，采用非线性系统解耦方法对该系统实现了输入—输出线性化，并应用线性系统方法进行镇定；然后提出了基于人工神经网在线逼进NWMR动力学特性的自适应跟踪控制方法；最后将本文最短距离路径规划方法与跟踪控制方法相结合实现了NWMR系统状态镇定，并通过仿真实验证明了该方法的有效性。

The first part is the introduction, which generally introduces the research purpose and significance of this thesis, the summary of the financial pre-warning researches both home and abroad, and the research main contexts and research methods; The second part is the comparison on the financial pre-warning methods existent, which compares the different methods by categories, makes a further analysis on the limits of existent methods, and proposes the improve thoughts of this research based on that; The third part is the basic theory, which makes a summary of the referent theories exerted on the research, and exposit the comparing mechanism of the grey prediction theory and the artificial neural network method concise; The fourth part is the frame work of the model, which illuminates the research designs step by step, such as the definition of the financial crisis, the method of sample select, the select and definition of the pre-warning variables, and makes an exposition of the establishment procedures of the whole models at last; The fifth part is the financial pre-warning based on the theory of grey prediction and artificial neural network, which mainly demonstrate the model establishment in the concrete, dividing into four part to carry out the part of pragmatic research integrally, building of indexes system, establishment of BP neural networks, dynamic financial pre-warning and test, analysis on the pre-warning result; The sixth part is conclusion, which sums up the main results of the whole research, clarifies the innovative points, and makes a discussion on the limits and future study directions of the research in this thesis.

其中，第一部分为导论，总括性概述本文的研究目的与意义，国内外研究综述，以及本文的研究内容和方法；第二部分为现有财务预警研究方法剖析，通过对现有预警方法进行分类比较，进一步分析现有预警方法的局限性，并在此基础上提出本文研究的改进思路；第三部分基本理论，对本文研究中运用的相关理论进行扼要概述，并简要阐述灰色预测理论与人工神经方法的融合机理；第四部分为模型研究框架，逐步阐释模型对财务困境的界定，样本数据的选取方法，预警变量的选取与定义等各个部分的研究设计，并对整体模型的构建步骤进行简要阐述；第五部分为基于灰色神经网络模型的财务预警，主要论述动态预警模型的具体实现过程，分模型指标体系的建立，BP神经网络的建立，动态财务预警与检验，以及预警结果分析四个部分全面阐述本文实证分析过程；第六部分为结论，总结本文研究得到的主要研究结论，以及本文研究中的创新之处，并对论文的不足与后续发展研究进行探讨。

Chapter 2 has analysized the conversly synthetic means of solanesol and designed novelly synthetic routes of solanesol and key intermediate Chapter 3 has summarized the preparation of trans-3-methyl-4-hydroxy (bromo-2-butenyl oxy methyl benzene In chapter 4 ,a novel technology of important intermediate(all trans-8-bromo geranyl acetate),which is suitable for industrial procedure , was found .meanwhile,an another new way has been invented ,of which the key intermediate (all trans-8-hydroxy geranyl acetate) has been produced.

第二部分分析了茄尼醇的逆合成方法，设计了一条适合于合成茄尼醇的合成路线及其重要中间体的合成路线。第三部分研究了重要中间体[Trans-3-甲基-4-羟基-2-丁烯基乙酰基(苄基，2，3-二氢吡喃基)醚]的合成新方法，找到了一条适合于工业化生产的制备反式-3-甲基-4-羟基-2-丁烯基苄基醚的新方法。第四部分研究了重要中间体[-3，7-二甲基-8-羟基-2，6-辛二烯-1-醇乙酸酯、-3，7-二甲基-8-溴-2，6-辛二烯-1-醇乙酸酯]的合成新方法，找到了一条适合于工业化生产的制备它们的新方法；同时研究了一条制备-3，7-二甲基-8-羟基-2，6-辛二烯-1-醇乙酸酯的另一新方法。

Drug sensitive test and three-dimensional test220 strains of Pa were isolated from hospitalized patients between 2003 and 2007. K-B method was used to tested the susceptibility of 10 different antibiotics. IRPa was screened by testing the minimal inhibitory concentration of imipemem by using agar diluiion method.The susceptibility of these IRPa to the antibiotics was analysised. Three-dimensional test was used to identify the different kinds of beta lactamases from 220 strains of Pa.2.Carbarpenems hydrolytic enzyme genes and oprD2 gene were detectedamong the selected IRPa strains, PCR method was performed to detect carbapenemase genes which included GES、KPC、SPM、VIM、IMP、GIM gene and the oprD2 gene;Multiplex PCR were used to detect OXA genes and plasmid-mediated AmpC beta lactamase genes; The expression of the chromosomal AmpC beta lactamases and oprD2 genes in IRPa strains were analyzed by Real-time PCR.3.Identification and characterization of integronsIntegrase gene was detected by PCR, and the classification of integrons was performed by using restriction fragment length polymorphism.PCR was performed to detect the qacE△1-sull gene,and the gene cassetes which are located at variable region of integrons in the strains were detected to be positive.

方法1、药敏实验和三维实验收集2003～2007年临床分离的220株Pa，对这些菌株采用K-B法测定10种临床常用抗生素的药敏情况，同时采用琼脂稀释法检测亚胺培南的最低抑菌浓度(Minimal inhibitory concentration，MIC)，筛选出对亚胺培南耐药的铜绿假单胞菌，并分析其对其它抗生素的药物敏感率；采用三维实验的方法分析220株Pa产β内酰胺酶的类型。2、碳青霉烯类水解酶和oprD2蛋白的检测针对鉴定的IRPa菌株，采用普通PCR方法检测具有碳青霉烯水解作用的β内酰胺酶耐药基因(GES、KPC、SPM、VIM、IMP、GIM基因)和oprD2基因，采用多重PCR的方法检测OXA型基因和质粒携带的AmpC酶基因，用荧光定量RT-PCR方法检测oprD2蛋白基因表达情况；同时对产AmpC酶的Pa(25株，含IMP耐药和敏感株)用RT-PCR方法检测AmpC酶基因的表达量情况。3。

The physiology of the skin machine body for the sake of the environment in the maintenance stability, but eject a body metabolism creation of metabolism thing BE'grease', summer perspire many various skin disease light or good, autumn perspire little metabolism thing metabolism don't go out, various skin disease made, this be the skin machine body of various burning disease.

皮肤机体的生理为了维持内环境稳定，而排出身体代谢产生的代谢物是'油泥'，夏天出汗多各种皮肤病就轻或好了，秋天出汗少代谢物代谢不出去，各种皮肤病就犯了，这就是皮肤机体的各种炎症。

If I had anything tender in me, I shot it dead.

如果我有什么招标的话，我枪死亡。