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The thesis tends to investigate the establishment of the insurance cycle score and business cycle of the premium of new business. We utilize six kinds of different insurance of new business to be our investigate object, that including ordinary life insurance, group life insurance, individual health insurance, group health insurance, personal accident insurance and group accident insurance. Besides observing fluctuate of the firsthand information, we used the maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the unknown parameter of Markov switching models. Try to cognizance the peak and the trough of business cycle.

本研究在探讨保险新契约之保费的景气循环状况与景气分数的制定，其中我们利用六种不同的保险新契约保费当研究对象，包括个人人寿保险保费、团体人寿保险保费、个人健康保险保费、团体健康保险保费、个人伤害保险保费和团体伤害保险保费，除了观察原始资料的波动外，亦采用最大概似估计法来估计马可夫转换模型的未知参数，尝试著去认定景气循环的高峰与谷底。

War ripped the world apart, and in Arnhem, Audrey saw its destruction firsthand.

战争将世界撕裂，而在阿纳姆，赫本亲眼目睹战争的破坏力。

Years of research during the 1960s in Michigan's Isle Royale National Park provided Mech with a level of firsthand knowledge shared by few in the field.

多年的研究，在20世纪 60年代在密歇根州的伊勒罗亚尔国家公园提供机械与水平的第一手知识分享一些在外地。

I go to school at night.

我是上上学。

Clear Tip Nasal Aspirator: A soft time and gentle suction action makes removing excess mucus easy.

鼻吸明确提示：一个柔软的时间和温柔吸力行动使消除过剩的粘液容易。