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Based on monthly average air temperature data in Jinzhou from 1954 to 2005,the seasonal and annual average air temperature changes were analyzed by linear trend method and moving average method.

根据1954—2005年锦州累年逐月平均气温资料,采用一元线性趋势估计和滑动平均方法分析了近半个世纪锦州季和年平均气温变化趋势;采用滑动t检验法分析了气温突变。

The results show that the variations of summer temperature and precipitation in Chongqing contain obvious staggered features. The variations of precipitation are more complex than that of temperature. Three\|year period\|oscillation of mean temperature variations is the strongest,...

结果表明,重庆市夏季气温及降水变化具有明显的阶段性,且降水变化较气温更复杂;重庆市夏季平均气温变化以3年周期振动最强,而降水变化则以10年周期振动最强。

Temperature is also a main factor affecting the summer runoff, and the relative influences of mean minimum temperature and averaged diurnal temperature range are 34%, 31%, respectively.

春季径流量的增加归因于平均最低气温的升高,其影响程度为68%;温度同样是影响夏季径流的主要因子,平均最低气温,平均日较差相对影响程度分别为34%、31%;降水量增多、平均地温升高是秋季径流量增加的主要原因,相对影响程度分别是35%、65%;影响冬季径流的主要气候因子是冬季平均最低气温、平均地温,影响程度分别是36%,64%。

Results show that there are multi-time scale periodic variations in AOI, the temperature and precipitation in Northwest China with significant syntonic periods of qausi-3 a between AOI and the precipitation, while the multi-time scale correlations between AOI and the temperature are quasi-2 a, 3-5 a and about 8-11 a with the strongest coherency in 8-11 a syntonic period. The influence of AO on temperature is more remarkable than that on precipitation in Northwest China for the interaction of their interdecada1 variation.

结果表明,AOI、西北地区降水和气温变化都存在着不同尺度的周期振荡,西北地区降水与AOI之间存在准3 a尺度的显著共振周期,而AOI与西北地区气温变化的多时间尺度相关表现为准2a、3~5 a和8~11 a左右的显著相关振荡且以8~11 a共振周期的凝聚性最强;AO对西北地区气温变化的影响比对降水的影响更显著,与其年代际尺度的相互作用有关。

All the analysis was done using SAS EM 4.1 software. The prevalence of tracheobronchitis were higher in spring and autumn. Average atmospheric pressure, average temperature, highest air temperature, lowest air temperature, water-vapour pressure, degradation of visibility were positively correlated with the prevalence of tracheobronchitis. Factors that affected the incidence of tracheobronchitis were average atmospheric pressure, degradation of visibility, daily temperature difference and water-vapour pressure.

结果]湖州市气管支气管炎门诊人数存在明显的季节分布差异,夏季和冬季是此类疾病的2个高发季节,而春季和秋季门诊人数较少;其门诊人数与平均气压、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、水汽压、大气能见度等气象条件存在较好相关性;影响气管支气管炎门诊人数的主要气象因子有平均气压、能见度、日较差和水汽压,当平均气压≥1020.33hPa且能见度<6.2km时,气管支气管炎门诊人数最高。

The partial least-squares regression model is built up to forecast crop leaf water potential of estival maize.Thirdly, atmosphere aspect, the low water age has been forecasting by R/S method of fractal theory in Si Chuan middle region. The chaotic behavior of agriculture meteorologic factors (average temperature, max temperature, min temperature, temperature of the earths surface, evaporators, precipitation, relative humidity, sunlight time) time series is investigated using the phase-space reconstruction technique, and the delay time and relation dimension and min embedding dimension and Lyapunov exponent and Kolmogrov entropy is calculated. The atmosphere water potential is calculated by surveyed data, and the day change law of atmosphere water potential and the relation between it and sun radiation has been discussed.

第三,关于大气方面,利用分形理论中R/S分析法对川中丘陵区的枯水年进行了预测;利用混沌理论的重构相空间技术,确定了农业气象因子(旬平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、地表温度、蒸发量、降水量、相对湿度、日照时数)的延时、关联维数、最小嵌入维数、Lyapunov指数、Kolmogrov熵,从而证明了以上各农业气象因子的时间序列具有混沌特性,为利用混沌理论预测各气象因子提供了科学依据;利用田间自动气象站的数据计算了大气水势并探讨了大气水势的日变化规律以及大气水势与太阳辐射的关系。

The resultsshow that the Pliocene paleoclimate of Tuantian Basin is characterized by the mean annualtemperature 21.3-25.1℃, mean temperature of the warmest month21.3-25.1℃, mean temperature of the coldest month 10.8-14.6℃, difference intemperature between the coldest and warmest month 11.3-16.3℃, mean annualprecipitation 1225.7-1638.3 mm, and relative humidity 75-82%.

通过共存因子分析法,取团田植物群37个化石种的最近亲缘种的气候因子的共存区间,定量重建了团田晚上新世的古气候特征:年均温为16.4-19.8℃,最热月平均气温21.3-25.1℃,最冷月平均气温10.8-14.6℃,气温年较差11.3-16.3℃,年均降水量1225.7-1638.3 mm,年均相对湿度75-82%。

According to the energy conservation theory, BOM and CSIM4 were coupled. The BOM has no treatment on transmission solar radiation, which is of great importance when the model is adapted to Arctic Ocean. So the treatment was introduced to BOM. Through numerical test on different lead albedos, it was found that sea ice thickness is not so sensitive to lead albedo, which may be contribute to the lead occupies little ratio within multiyear sea ice pack. The reason of summer over-melt of arctic sea ice is the NCEP reanalysis downward solar radiation being larger than its reality. Then the arctic sea ice climate variability was simulated. Results showed that: simulated ice thickness change is in accord with the submarine investigated mean sea-ice draft changes. Simulated annually maximum ice thickness along the Eurasian continental oceans are closely related to the observed ones. The long-term mean simulated ice motion has the same features of the SSM/I derived ice motion. Sea ice extents in differential sub-regions have same trends comparing to the satellite passive-microwave data derived ones. Simulated ice concentration is closely related to the observed in the Arctic sub-regions. Sea ice flux through the Fram Strait involves ice concentration, motion and thickness. It is a composite criterion for sea ice model evaluation. The simulated ice area and volume export through the strait accord with the satellite derived or statistically reconstructed ones.(5) The simulated ice thickness climate variability and mean sea surface current of the coupled model were analyzed, results showed: the total ice volume in the Arctic Ocean has a significant decreasing trend. The volume variability is of a 10-year timescale oscillation, with two major periods of 12-13a and 18-20a. Mean ice thickness in the arctic sub-seas has different tendencies. It has an increasing trend in the Barents-Kara Sea and Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea, and decreasing in the others. The characteristic time scale of 7-10a wherein the river discharges leads the Fram Strait ice volume export is about the period that river water takes to be conveyed across the Arctic Ocean.(6) Using the simulated ice distribution in the Arctic Ocean and China precipitation, air temperature and SST in tropical key regions, the climate teleconnection were studied. Result showed: When the mean sea ice thickness is large in the central Arctic Ocean and Chukchi-Beaufort Sea , and small in the Barents-Kara Sea and Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea , the precipitation in South China, Tibetan Plateau, and the north part of Northeastern China are always smaller than normal, and v. v. When the mean ice thickness is small in CA, BC, East Siberian Sea and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea , and large in BL, The air temperature in north-eastern China, the southern of Tibetan Plateau, and Hainan Island, are always lower than normal, and v. v. In addition, when the sea ice is thick in BC and BL, the SST is larger in the middle and eastern Pacific Ocean, and is smaller in the tropical Southeastern Indian Ocean.

由于BOM没有考虑透射太阳辐射的物理过程,研究表明透射太阳辐射对北冰洋的能量收支起到重要作用,因此在BOM模式中引入了对透射太阳辐射的处理;通过对不同水道反照率的数值试验表明海冰厚度对水道反照率的敏感性不强,可能与海冰区水道面积占的比率很小有关;而模式模拟的北极海冰夏季&过度融化&主要源于NCEP再分析资料提供了偏大的太阳短波辐射;对北极海冰的气候变率进行了模拟研究,结果表明:模拟的海冰厚度变化与潜艇探测的海冰吃深度变化具有一致性;模拟和观测的亚欧大陆沿海的年内最大海冰厚度有很好的相关;模拟的海冰移速与长期平均的卫星反演的海冰移速具有相同的速度分布特征;模拟的各个海区海冰面积的变化趋势与卫星反演资料分析的结果基本一致;模拟与观测的主要海洋分区的海冰密集度具有很好的相关:弗瑞姆海峡的海冰体积和面积的输送涉及到海冰密集度、厚度和移动速度,是判断模式模拟能力的一个综合的指标,模式模拟的结果与卫星反演或重建的面积输送、体积输送具有很好的一致性;(5)分析了模拟的北极海冰厚度的气候变率及气候平均表层海流场,结果表明:北极海冰的总体积有显著减少的趋势,北极海冰总体积的变化具有10a际尺度振荡的特点,存在18-20a和12-13a两个主周期;北极海冰的平均厚度在各个海区的变化趋势不同,在巴伦支—喀拉海和巴芬湾—拉布拉多海地区海冰厚度有显著的增加趋势,而其它海区存在减少的趋势;通过对模拟的气候平均表层海流的分析表明,北极河流流量超前弗瑞姆海峡海冰流量7-10年的特征时间尺度与表层海流的气候分布存在着必然联系:(6)利用模拟结果以及中国降水、气温和热带关键区SST资料,讨论了北极各海区海冰平均厚度与中国降水、气温以及热带关键区SST的关系,结果表明:在北极中心海区和楚科奇—波弗特海海冰厚度偏大,在巴伦支—喀拉海以及巴芬湾—拉布拉多海海冰厚度偏小,则中国降水在华南地区、青藏高原和东北北部降水偏少,反之相反;在北极中心海区、东西伯利亚海、楚科奇—波弗特海以及格陵兰海海冰厚度偏小,在巴芬湾—拉布拉多海海冰厚度偏大,则在中国东北地区、高原南部地区和海南岛附近气温偏低,反之相反;另外,北极楚科奇—波弗特海和巴芬湾—拉布拉多海海冰厚度偏大时,在热带中东太平洋海温偏高,而在热带东南印度洋海温偏低。

The result indicates that there are two negative effect stages of temperature on rice and rice yield before tasseling and after tasseling. And the temperature effect is most obvious on seed-setting rate, secondly on 1000-grain weight and thirdly on yield. The effect of minimum temperature on rice is greater than that of maximum temperature.

结果表明,气温对水稻产量构成和产量在始穗前和始穗后各有一个负影响时段,其影响程度始穗前大于始穗后;对结实率影响最大,其次是千粒重,再次是产量;最低气温的影响大于最高气温

The temperature trend rate at Kushka station, which has the lowest latitude, is 0.018℃/a, and that at the other four stations is less than 0.01℃/a. The warming trend at Kushka, Almaty, and Tomsk stations, which are at relatively low latitudes, is significant, and it changed abruptly during the period from the l970s to the l980s. The rise of the minimum temperature is more obvious than that of the maximum temperature, and the warming phenomenon at Kushka station is the most significant. The precipitation trend rate at the five stations is about 0.09% per year, and the trend is not significant.

纬度最低的库什卡站气温倾向率为0.018℃/a,其他4站均小于0.01℃/a,纬度相对较低的库什卡、阿拉木图、托木斯克3站的升温趋势显著,且在20世纪70~80年代发生突变升温;年最低气温比年最高气温的升高现象明显,且纬度最低的库什卡站的升温现象最显著。5个站的降水量倾向率约0.09%/a,但增湿的趋势不显著。

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