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Based on the data analysis and numerical simulation, the Arctic sea ice climate variability was researched, the result were as following:(1) The analysis on the seasonal cycle of the Arctic Ocean and atmosphere showed that: The seasonal surface wind is somewhat trade wind like in some regions in the Arctic. The surface air temperature is robustly determined from the underlying environments such as sea ice and Greenland glaciers. In the sea ice region the precipitation rate is larger than that of evaporation. Furthermore, the Arctic Ocean hydrology is profoundly influenced by the surrounding rivers discharge. These are the decisive factors on the ocean salinity pattern. Sea ice flux through the Fram Strait is larger in winter than in summer. From the 40s in the 20th century on, the ice volume flux has an increasing trend. The Arctic rivers flood season is about the melt period, the winter rivers discharge has a significant increasing. Correlation analysis shows that 7 to 10 years is a characteristic time scale that rivers discharge leads Fram Strait ice volume export.(2) Considering 9 major arctic rivers, the Arctic Ocean circulation was simulated through BOM. The result shows that: The BOM can reproduce the main Arctic Ocean circulation pattern. The"Islandization"which is commonly used in OGCMs to treat the North Pole, not only influences the ocean current near the pole, but also influences the current in the Northern Atlantic Ocean, thus the bogus island might influence global climate through thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean.

在资料分析和数值模拟的基础上,对北极海冰的气候变率进行了深入的研究,结果如下:(1)对北极地区大气和海洋季节循环特征的分析表明,气候平均风场在部分地区具有&信风&的性质;而气温场与海冰分布及格陵兰半岛冰原的下垫面特征有密切关系;在北极海冰区的降水量大于蒸发量,并且在全球大洋中北冰洋受到河流径流的影响最大,对北冰洋的盐度分布有决定作用;通过弗瑞姆海峡的海冰通量在冬半年大于夏半年,并且从20世纪40年代起,海冰的体积输送有增加趋势;北极河流的汛期主要在融化季节,冬季的河流流量有显著增加的趋势;相关分析表明7到10年是北极河流流量影响弗瑞姆海峡海冰体积输送的一个特征时间尺度;(2)采用BOM海洋模式对北冰洋海洋环流进行了模拟研究,在模式中考虑了北极9条主要河流的作用,结果表明该海洋模式可以较好模拟出北冰洋海洋环流的基本特征;多数大洋环流模式采用&北极岛化&的方法处理北极点,模拟结果表明&北极岛化&不仅影响到极点附近的海流,还会对相对较远的北大西洋海流造成影响,并可能通过大西洋的热盐环流对全球气候产生影响;(3)采用CSIM4海冰模式对北极海冰的气候态进行了模拟。

TO SHOW that you are up to speed on global warming, you need to know your Rio summit from your Kyoto protocol; your Greenland pump from your carbon sink; and your Harald Sverdrup (a Norwegian oceanographer, who measured sea currents) from your Bjorn Lomborg (a Danish controversialist, who annoys greens).

为了显示你对全球变暖的速度有所关心,你需要能够了解和分辨京都议定书和里约热内陆地球峰会,格陵兰泵和二氧化碳吸收器,还有Harald Sverdrup(挪威海洋学家,从事海洋流测算工作)和Bjorn Lomborg(一位对环境保护持有不同见解的丹麦人,他的主张让绿色主义者极为不爽)。

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