查询词典 decision theory

Title: Study on Decision Rule Optimization and Organization of Group Decision-making Abstract Group decision-making, as one of the basic forms of decision-making, plays an important role in economic and political fields due to the ever-increasing complexity of decision issue and the enhanced democracy awareness. Research of group decision-making is receiving more and more attention as the cutting edge of decision-making theory. Fruitful results are achieved in this field, while there are still some weak aspects for further research, especially in the organization and decision process ot group decision-making. Researches in those fields are instrumental in optimizing the organization and decision process of group decision-making. And we have made some exploration in this paper as follows.

随着决策问题的日趋复杂化和人们民主意识的增强，群体决策作为决策的一种基本形式，在政治和经济生活中占有越来越重要的地位，而群体决策作为决策理论研究的热点和前沿也在国内外方兴未艾，并取得了丰硕的成果，但也存在一些薄弱环节和需要深入研究的问题，特别是在群体决策的组织结构和决策过程方面，如群体决策的规则优化、决策规则的约束性质、群体决策中领导的影响、决策者之间的相关性对决策质量的影响、序贯群体决策中各种组织因素对其决策质量、决策效率、决策收益的影响等等。

Theexpected utility theory based on the axioms isalso very important in modern decision-making theory.Form late fifties lastcentury,some scientists ahead by Allais and Edwards,try to check the facticity ofthe rational decision-making models applied to the real decision-making behavior,but find it unsatisfactory.For example,Allais Paradox and Preference Circleschallenge the axioms critically.

从二十世纪五十年代后期开始，以Allais和Edwards为首的一批学者从心理学的角度参与了实际决策行为的研究，他们从实证的观点去考察理性决策模型在实际决策行为中的真实性，不断地发现这些模型在应用中表现出各种偏差，Allais悖论的设计和克星循环现象的发现对Von Neumann-Morgenstern理性行为公理提出了有力的挑战。

In this dissertation,Von Numann and Morgenstern Axioms are analyzedagain at first.It is pointed out not only that preference relations are often latticeordered,but also that the transitivity axiom,along with the independence axiomand the continuity axiom is still rational to a high degree,then a new set ofaxioms for lattice-order decision-making behavior is established.At last,relatedsubjects based on lattice in preference theory,utility theory,decision-makingmethods,multiattribute decision-making,and group decision-making are studied.In this way,the lattice-order decision-making theory is framed.Main creativeresults are obtained as follows

本论文重新审视了Von Neumann-Morgenstern理性行为公理体系，对以前学者较少涉及到的连通性公理提出了质疑，指出偏好关系具有格特征，而传递性公理、独立性公理以及连续性公理在很大程度上仍具有合理性，进而创建了格序决策行为公理体系，研究了基于格的偏好理论、效用理论、决策方法、多目标决策以及群决策中的相关问题，初步构建了格序决策理论框架，主要研究成果如下

In this paper, granularity in rough set theory is used to describe rules based on the concept of rough degree. A tool for knowledge dependent relation diagram is put forward. Then dimensional knowledge granularity decision space and the same construction mapping decision space based on multi-decision sorts is established, and decision algorithm based on KDRD and decision space is introduced. Finally, through combining with the technique of fault diagnosis, it is proved that the approach is very appropriate to the intelligent decision system.

本文利用粗糙集理论中的粗度概念，在对获取规则进行扩展性的粒度描述的基础上，提出了一种工具―知识依赖关系图，构造了n维知识粒度决策空间以及基于多决策类的同构映射决策空间，建立了基于KDRD和决策空间的决策算法，并结合机械故障诊断说明了本方法非常适于故障诊断等通过结论获取原因的智能决策系统。

Based on grey system theory and fuzzy theory, uncertain decision making problems and several relative articles were studied, then points out the advantage and shortage of them when dealing with grey fuzzy set were pointed out. In this paper, using optimization theory and the maximum entropy formulism, a method for multi attribute group decision making based on the theory of grey fuzzy relation is established.

引言不确定型决策问题在社会、经济、环境和管理等各个领域中普遍存在，并且是一项复杂的系统工程，由于人的参与使相关数据与信息系统中的不确定性更加显著，不确定性通常分为 2类，一个是所谓"主观"不确定性，即人的思维模糊性，另一个是信息不完全、不充分所造成的客观不确定性，即灰性。

At last, in order to to provide reference for government\'s decision-making, we study the relationship between government macro-control and port scale construct game based on correlative theory of economics, put forward the conception of decision-making function, and present theory and application framework to quantify this macro-control question based on decision-making function.

最后，基于经济学的相关理论，分析地方政府的参与行为对港口规模博弈的影响，提出集装箱港口规模决策的优化模型，并给出基于该优化模型的宏观调控问题的理论及应用框架，为国家相关部门决策提供参考。

The paper firstly sums up the relative theory and development trend of Decision Support system, mainly including the decision-making supporting function, the features, the structure and the major mission of DSS. Subsequently, the paper lays emphasis on the research of the electricity requirement, energy-exhausting analysis and network optimum programming method for the second oil-mining factory of Da-Qing oil field, and then provides the principle of the network programming and the framework for designing DSS according to the requirement of optimizing the layout of network, saving energy and timely supervising. Following the former analysis and design, the paper finally conducts the development and debugging of the Decision Supporting System based on the software engineering theory.

本文首先对决策支持系统的相关理论及其发展趋势进行了综述，重点介绍了决策支持系统的决策支持功能、决策支持系统的基本特征、决策支持系统的主要任务和决策支持系统的结构等；然后，对大庆采油二厂地面生产系统电力需求、能耗分析、电网框架规划优化方法进行了研究，针对优化网络布局、节省损耗以及实时监控的要求，提出了网络规划的原则、系统设计的基本思想，进而进行了系统总体结构、系统的模型库以及数据库的设计；最后，按照软件工程学的方法，在系统分析和设计的基础上，完成了整个系统的开发和调试工作。

Combining the theory of finance engineering, traffic engineering and systemengineering, and setting out with benefit and cost, the article makes thorough studyon investment decision-making and evaluation of inner financed BOT implemented inChina, based on the theory of real-option. The theory of inner financed BOT ofhighway investment decision-making and evaluation system is initiatorily come intobeing in this article.I.

结合金融工程理论方法、交通工程及系统工程理论，从效益和费用着手，应用实物期权理论系统地对我国实施内资BOT公路项目投资决策评价进行了深入、细致的研究工作，初步形成了较为全面的内资BOT公路项目投资决策评价系统的理论体系。

Therefore, it can be regarded as a great improvement of the investment decision-making theory and methods .This article makes a systematic research on real options theory and method and its application, including the following several main aspects:Firstly, it makes a detailed discussion about the common theoretical basis of financial options and real options, including no-arbitrage equilibrium principle, risk-neutral definition, complete market and dynamic tracking.Secondly, it analyze three basic characteristic of investment decision-making in modern market economic system: irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility, and from the angle of their mutual quantitative and qualitative interactions, it makes a comparison between the traditional NPV methods and real options methods and makes a summary of the general analytical methods of real options.Thirdly, it discusses the all elements in the application of real options such as the ^leakages in value of real assets, basis risk, and private risk, and furthermore, it attempts to put forth a normalized strategy of its application and construct a basic framework of its application.Fourthly, it applies real options theory to strategetic investment of enterprises and the buy-out of company, putting forth a value model for strategetic investment program and making a concrete analysis of its application to buy-out. Furthermore, it advocates that a flexible investment decision-making system should be setup according to real options theory in our country.

本文对实物期权理论和方法及其应用进行了系统研究，主要内容包括如下几个方面：(1)详细讨论了金融期权和实物期权共同的理论基础，主要包括无套利均衡原理、风险中性定义、完全市场以及动态复制方法，对这些理论方法的探讨既是本文的出发点和基础，它们提供了研究实际应用实物期权的一个基准点，也是贯穿全文的线索和灵魂；(2)分析了现代市场经济体系中投资决策的三个基本特征即不可逆性、不确定性和时机选择，并从它们数量上和质量上相互作用的重要意义的角度，分析了传统的净现值法与实物期权方法的差异，指出了净现值法在不确定环境中存在的缺陷及实物期权处理投资灵活性的价值，并将净现值法纳入实物期权投资分析决策体系当中，总结了企业投资决策实物期权的一般分析方法；(3)探讨了实物期权应用中要考虑的各种要素，如实物资产的价值漏损、基差风险和非市场风险等，并进一步提出了实物期权应用的规范化策略和构建了一个实际应用实物期权方法的基本框架，尝试将期权的基本原理与企业在现实经济环境中投资决策的要素结合起来，从而可以在一定程度上超越期权的复杂的数学计算而汲取期权思想的精华，从而促进期权决策方法在实际投资决策中的应用；(4)将实物期权方法应用于企业战略投资，得出了战略投资项目的价值模型，指出可以将实物期权理论和方法应用于企业并购，分析了应用的具体方面，并提出应根据实物期权理论建立一套适合我国企业的灵活的投资决策系统。

This paper educes a model of science and technology encouragement based fuzzy decision theory .

本文用模糊决策理论对科技奖励评价建立数学模型，探讨用该模型进行科技奖励评价的步骤。

Since historical times,England ,where the early inhabitants were Celts, has been conquered three times .

从有历史以来，英国，在此地早期居住的是凯尔特人，已经被征服了三次。

Bluetooth OBEX File Transfer Enables the sending and receiving of files on your phone via Bluetooth.

蓝牙OBEX文件移动允许经过蓝牙传送和接受文件。。。。