查询词典 subjective probability

Then we introduced transition probability kernel for the hidden state process and the confederated process. In the deep research, we found that some similar parameters of state transition probability, observation symbol probability and initial state probability were involved in the transition probability kernel of the confederated process. So we can complete the training of traditional HMM parameters by training the transition probability kernel of the confederated process. To our surprised, we got the consistency of transition probability kernel of the confederated process. Meanwhile, we proved the rationality and reliability of the parameters estimation equations under the classical B-W algorithm.

然后对联合过程的转移概率核展开研究，我们根据过程的取值空间的不同，引入了隐状态空间和联合过程空间上的转移概率核，研究中发现在联合空间上的转移概率核包含了在一般的隐马氏模型的参数估计中的所有类似的三组参数(转移概率，观测概率和初始概率)，因此对传统的隐马氏模型的参数训练我们可以通过联合过程的转移概率核的训练来完成，更令我们惊奇的是联合过程的转移概率核还具有一致性；同时对于Baum提出的经典的B-W算法给出的关于模型的参数重估计公式，证明了它的合理性和可靠性，即模型经过重估计后的参数能够满足给定的单观测序列在模型下发生的概率是单调递增的。

Chapter 1 we introduce the risk process with positive and negative risk sums,show the background of the risk process. Chapter 2 we show the integral and differential equation of birth probability,give the Lundberg inequation that the ruin probability satisfies with martingale approach,then discuss then ruin probability of the risk process with two dependent positive and negative risk sums,study how the dependence impacts on the ruin probability. Chapter 3 we compare the concrete examples by numbers,and makes further comparison between the two results coming out of independency and dependency,with the purpose of narrating their respective impacts on the probability of ruin probability.

本文第一章引入含正、负风险和的风险模型，介绍风险过程的实际背景；第二章给出生存概率Φ所满足的积分-微分方程，利用典型鞅方法给出破产概率Ψ满足的Lundberg不等式，并且讨论两个相关正、负风险和模型的破产概率，研究相关性对破产概率的影响；第三章对具体实例给出数值比较，进一步把相关性和独立性两种情形的结果进行比较，说明对破产概率的影响。

Based on probability theory, a method for describing and calculating the collision probability between rendezvous and docking vehicle and debris is presented, and the method involves quantitatively analyzing the collision probability using quasi maximum instantaneous collision probability and total collision probability. The method calculating the indexes is developed, and the input required to perform a calculation includes the respective state vectors, position error covariance matrices and physical sizes of objects involved.(3) Two methods to analyze relative trajectory safety between chaser and target are developed, which are 3-sigma ellipsoid based methodology and collision probability based methodology.

1分析了交会对接各阶段面临的主要轨迹安全威胁，阐述了被动和主动安全策略、目标器的交会对接控制区域等保证交会安全的措施；(2)基于概率思想发展了线性和非线性运动情况下飞行器与空间碎片的碰撞判断方法，提出采用总碰撞概率和拟最大瞬时碰撞概率来综合描述飞行器与空间碎片的碰撞危险程度，推导了通过飞行器和空间碎片各自的状态矢量、位置误差协方差矩阵以及形状尺寸来计算碰撞概率的公式；(3)提出了两种分析追踪器和目标器之间相对轨迹安全的新方法：基于3σ椭球的轨迹安全分析方法和基于碰撞概率的轨迹安全分析方法。

It change the normal method for "beginning control" and "goal control". With the development of living level, upholster is dispensability for indoor, the using of decorative material produce plenty of poisonous、baleful chemical substance. These substance make the air indoor into bad, and threaten the healthy in the door if these cumulate .What"s more it will reduce work efficiency. The past method of IAQA is subjective assessment or giving priority subjective assessment. But people will adapt to indoor environment due to settle in the door long-term, which it lead to incorrectness. So, we can"t only use subjective assessment for IAQ. In this article, the author bring forward the best and the reasonable assessing method ,which it is combining the subjective assessment to objective assessment.

随着生活水平的提高，室内装潢成为家居装饰不可缺少的部分，装饰材料的应用，会产生大量的有毒、有害化学物质，使得室内的空气质量变差，且长期累积会威胁室内人员的身体健康，导致工作效率低下，过去对室内空气品质的研究仅用主观评价方法或以主观评价为主对室内人员的主观感受做调查，但是由于室内人员对室内的环境具有适应性，从而造成评价的不准确，且过去对化学微污染物的影响没有定性的研究，因此，用该方法进行评价显然是不准确的，所以，本文提出用主观评价和客观评价想结合的评价方法对室内空气品质进行综合评价。

Events,Operation and Relation of Sets, Classical Probability, Geometrical Probability , Statistical Stability of a Frequency, Axioms of Probability, Conditional Probability, Total Probability Theorem, Bayes' Rule,Independent Events,Independent Repeated Trials, One Dimensional Random Variables, Discrete Random Variables, Distribution Function of a Random Variables , Continuous Random Variables, Normal Distribution, Distribution of a Function of a Random Variable, Multidimensional Random Variables, Joint Distribution Function, Marginal Distribution Function,Discrete Two—Dimensional Random Variables,Continuous Two—Dimensional Random Variables, Independent Random Variables, Distribution of Functions of Random Variables,Expectation,Variance, Covariance, Coefficient of Correlation, Bivariate Normal Distribution, Law of Large Numbers, The Central Limit Theorems, Sample and Population ,Chi—Squared, T and F Distributions , Sampling Distributions , Point Estimation , Interval Estimation , Testing Hypotheses , A Test of Significance for Parameters in a Single Sample From a Normally Distributed Population , A Test of Significance for Parameters in Two Sample From Normally Distributed Populations .

本课程的主要内容：概率的概念与运算、随机变量及其分布、随机变量的数字特征与极限定理、数理统计的基本概念、估计和检验的基本方法，随机事件与概率随机事件、事件的关系与运算、几何概率、统计概率等，条件概率、全概率公式、贝叶斯公式、事件的独立性、二项概率公式，随机变量的概念、离散型随机变量、随机变量的分布函数、连续型随机变量、随机变量函数的分布，多维随机变量及其分布函数、边缘分布函数、随机变量的独立性、二维随机变量函数的分布，数学期望、方差、协方差和相关系数、大数定律、中心极限定理，总体与样本， X 2-分布、 t-分布和 F-分布，统计量及抽样分布，假设检验的基本概念、单个正态总体参数的显著性检验、两个正态总体参数的显著性检验。

Firstly,the classification of probability rule is analyzed on the base of classic rough set concepts and extended to the equal relation of set in the indefinite system,namely,the upper and lower approximation space of research set is expressed in the form of conditional probability;then,according to the measure of probability rule,the attributes reduction is carried out and the classification rule is extracted by using the related parameters of condition attributes' impend precision from the angle of conditional probability;Finally,the related simulation test result is given and the result shows the classification rules with probability measures is more rational.

首先在经典粗糙集概念的基础上分析概率规则的分类，并将其推广到不确定系统的集合等价关系中，即用条件概率的形式表示研究集合的上下近似空间；然后根据概率规则的测度从条件概率的角度利用条件属性的逼近精度的相关参数进行属性集的约简进而提取分类规则；最后给出了相关的仿真实验结果，结果表明带有概率测度的分类规则更合理。

Support theory is a nonextensional theory of subjective probability judgment, which has several arguments:(1) subjective probability is influenced by description, which has description-dependence.

支持理论是一个关于主观概率判断的非外延性理论，它有以下几个主要观点：1。主观概率判断受到描述的影响，具有描述的依赖性；2。

It introduces the way for knowledge expression in subjective probability terms and makes a further discussion on the significance and methods of horizontal dimensionality and vertical dimensionality of organization knowledge in subjective probability terms.

提出基于心理学的知识定义，分析知识的信念特征；给出基于主观概率表征知识的方法；深入探讨基于主观概率的组织知识的纵向维度分析和横向维度分析的意义及其表征方法。

We also discuss the essence of probability, and point out that there are two kinds of probabilities. Objective probability is controlled by nature while subjective probability exists with subject.

作者探讨了概率的本质，指出概率有两种一种是自然界控制的客观概率，另一种是依赖于观测主体而存在的主观概率。

The fourth is to adjust the initial probability estimate. Historical bidding experiences can be introduced into the model through the subjective probability judgment and the initial probability judgment can be adjusted. The model has been applied in the annual bidding dealings of northeast regional electricity market and results verify the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed model.

通过中标概率主观判断的概念把历史报价的经验引入到竞价策略模型中，并通过主观概率判断的演进实现对初始概率判断的调整从而实现发电商的经验报价趋近于真实值，在东北区域电力市场初期年度第一轮竞价交易中，算例结果验证了该方法的实用性和有效性。

The system can be widely used in belt weighing and batching process control,etc.

介绍了基于智能模糊控制的嵌入式配料系统的设计方法，对模糊PID控制过程和系统调零作了重点的讨论，同时给出了PID控制的程序流程图和系统定长调零子程序。

"I dunno," she answered,"but if you show me aroun', I'll recognize it from the lighthouse just outside the porthole."

"我不知道，"她回答说，"如果你能带我转转，我能认出来的，因为灯塔就在舷窗外。"