查询词典 bayes decision function

Decision rule chain and distance function of decision rule are proposed, by which the order of decision rules are explained. The group scale's effect on decision quality and the marginal contribution of decision-makers are analyzed. It's pointed out that the increase of the scale will enhance the decision quality with the optimal decision rule applied. Otherwise it is likely to weaken the decision quality. It's proved that for homogeneous group with simple majority rule applied the marginal contribution of decision-maker will decrease while the scale increases or the decisional competencies of other decision-makers increase; 3.We study the group decision-making with a leader in it. It's proved that the existence of the leader impairs the decision quality when the group applies the optimal decision rule.

研究了决策者的决策能力不确定情况下的群体决策，给出了最优决策规则，指出其仍然是广义加权多数规则；提出了决策规则链和决策规则距离函数的概念，利用这些概念解释了群体决策规则的序现象；分析了群体规模对决策质量的影响、决策者决策能力的边际贡献，指出当群体应用最优规则时，群体规模的增大会提高决策质量，否则群体规模的增大可能会削弱决策质量；证明了对于应用简单多数规则的同质群体，随着其规模的增大，决策者决策能力对决策质量的边际贡献会减小；随着其他决策者决策能力的提高，决策者决策能力对决策质量的边际贡献也会减小； 3。

Title: Study on Decision Rule Optimization and Organization of Group Decision-making Abstract Group decision-making, as one of the basic forms of decision-making, plays an important role in economic and political fields due to the ever-increasing complexity of decision issue and the enhanced democracy awareness. Research of group decision-making is receiving more and more attention as the cutting edge of decision-making theory. Fruitful results are achieved in this field, while there are still some weak aspects for further research, especially in the organization and decision process ot group decision-making. Researches in those fields are instrumental in optimizing the organization and decision process of group decision-making. And we have made some exploration in this paper as follows.

随着决策问题的日趋复杂化和人们民主意识的增强，群体决策作为决策的一种基本形式，在政治和经济生活中占有越来越重要的地位，而群体决策作为决策理论研究的热点和前沿也在国内外方兴未艾，并取得了丰硕的成果，但也存在一些薄弱环节和需要深入研究的问题，特别是在群体决策的组织结构和决策过程方面，如群体决策的规则优化、决策规则的约束性质、群体决策中领导的影响、决策者之间的相关性对决策质量的影响、序贯群体决策中各种组织因素对其决策质量、决策效率、决策收益的影响等等。

Chapter 4 is the central part of this dissertation, where the bayes bilateral integrated moment is established on the base of Bayes theory, downside risk and upside potential. According to the variation coefficient which is based on the M-V approach, we substitute lower partial moment for the numerator of variation coefficient, and use higher partial moment as the substitute of the denominator, then we got bilateral integrated moment. Subsequently, through Bayes method we can absorb new information, revise the return distribution from transcendental distribution to posterior distribution, so we got bayes bilateral integrated moment.

第四章是本文的核心部分，在简要介绍Bayes理论、下方风险和上行潜能的基础上，仿照来源于Markowitz的均值——方差理论的变异系数方法，以下偏矩取代其分子部分，以上行潜能取代其分母部分，设计了双侧综合矩方法，接着再引入Bayes方法，吸纳新信息，采用后验概率，设计了Bayes双侧综合矩方法，并在理论上说明了新方法的优越性。

Research on the related attribute of evidence, influence and method of dealing with is carried out. Result of experiment demonstrates that the method can lead to the reliable decision effectively. Aiming at conflicting problem of decision making, fusion strategy of BPA reassign is adopted in coordinator of GDSS. Aiming at contradictory of decision-making, the process of decision-making is divided into two stages that are learning and decision-making. Each Agent is trained by proper information given by training example to eliminate contradictories among decision-making Agents and correct mistakes that ensure Agents cooperate effectively in the stage of cooperating decision.(3) In order to overcome the flaw of current GDSS that can only support static problem solving, adopting the method that combing Multi-Decision-Making-Agents Reinforcement Learning and the metempirical knowledge learning, the paper puts forward Reinforcement Learning and optimization under dynamic environment.

提出采用证据理论的证据合成作为协调器中决策Agent的融合策略，对群体决策支持系统的协调器进行决策融合过程中可能出现的情况进行了详细的分析，研究了证据的相关性及其在决策融合过程中的影响，提出了相关证据的处理方法，实验结果表明，该方法可有效保证决策结果的可靠性；针对决策过程中的冲突问题，提出协调器采用基本信任指派二次分配的协调策略；针对决策过程中的矛盾，提出将决策过程分为学习和决策两个阶段，各决策者Agent根据有限的训练样本所给出的正确信息进行训练，消除决策者Agent之间的矛盾和修正决策者Agent自身的错误，从而保证合作决策阶段实现有效的合作决策。

Study is made of Bayes estimation of the error rate proportionality parameter θ in the JM model for testing software reliability,leading to the a priori,a posteriori distribution of θ and the coresponding Bayes estimates on the Bayes assumption,Jeffrey s principle and conjugate dis- tribution,together with their comparison and discussion.

讨论了软件可靠性模型——JM 模型中故障率比例参数θ的 Bayes 估计问题，分别求出了在贝叶斯假设、杰弗莱原则和共轭分布原则下参数θ的先验分布、后验分布及相应的 Bayes 估计，并对它们进行了比较和讨论。

On the basis of analyzing the classification principle of Bayesian classification model and a variant of Bayes theorem, a new classification model based on Bayes theorem, DLBAN (double-level Bayesian network augmented naive Bayes), which adds the dependence among attributes by selecting the key attributes, is proposed.

通过分析贝叶斯分类模型的分类原则以及贝叶斯定理的变异形式，提出了一种基于贝叶斯定理的新的分类模型DLBAN(double-level Bayesian network augmented naive Bayes)。该模型通过选择关键属性建立属性之间的依赖关系。

By the minimum risk Bayes decision theory, this paper develops a new way of image segmentation: establish the mathematics model of image segmentation; estimate the probability density of grey scales and figure out its math-expectation and square difference that accord with normal distribution and the loss function; and judge the every pixel dot in the image according to the minimum risk Bayes decision theory and determine whether it is of target or non-target images, thereby realizing the extraction of the target image.

依据最小风险贝叶斯决策理论，提出了一种基于最小风险贝叶斯决策的图像分割方法。首先建立图像分割的最小风险贝叶斯决策模型，对灰度级类条件概率密度估计出其符合正态分布的数学期望和方差以及损失函数，再依据最小风险贝叶斯决策理论对图像中的每一像素点进行目标图像和非目标图像的类别判断，从而实现目标图像的提取。

Considering the uncertainty of the estimating reliability in the model, the theory of Bayes disk decision is used to solve the problem. The expected utility function is used to measure the uncertainty of the estimating reliability, and the Bayes decision rule for stopping reliability growth test is defined. In the end, an example is given to validate the feasibility of this method.

考虑到可靠度估计的不确定性，采用贝叶斯风险决策技术，通过期望效用函数量化可靠度的不确定性，并定义了停止可靠性增长试验的贝叶斯决策规则，最后给出了一个应用实例验证了方法的可行性。

In this paper I introduce basic theory of Bayes' method and business risk. I give out the thought of essential solving steps, then combine with an instance, as a spinning mill which would produce two different manufactures, flower woolen cloth and gabardine. I adopt Bayes' expectation of loss method to analysis the two manufactures producing, then made a decision, figure out expectation value of the two schemes. Then select a plan which get best profit or least loss. I compute other indexes, for example, probabilities under different stations, tenderness analysis, risk degree of different plans, then compare those indexes, we make a decision.

在文中详细的介绍了贝叶斯方法的基础理论和企业风险的有关理论，给出了贝叶斯估计方法的基本解题思路和步骤，再结合具体实例，对某纺织厂公司生产两种产品，花呢和华达呢具体生产的决策问题采用贝叶斯期望损益分析法，计算出两种方案的期望值，选取收益最大或损失最小的决策方案为最优决策方案，在不同的自然状态下，再计算其他的指标，例如敏感度分析，风险度。

The innovation of the article lies in:(1)gives the evolution process of decision model a systematic pectination, illuminates the internal logic and regularity of all kinds of decision models, and points out the limitation of each kind of decision model in the information age.(2)on basis of analyzing the evolution of the relation between several main decision models, elucidates an enterprise decision model ITDMM creatively which adapts the information age on all the aspects of decision models such as the main body of decision, procedure, method, internal environment and so on.

本文的创新之处在于：（1）系统梳理了决策模式的演进过程，阐释了决策模式的内在逻辑性和规律性，并指出各种决策模式在信息化时代所具有的局限性；（2）在分析几种主要决策模式之间关系演变的基础上，创新性地阐发了信息化时代ITDMM企业决策模式——从决策的主体、决策的程序、决策的方法和决策的内部环境等各个方面适应信息化时代的企业决策模式。

World War II: Battle of Saipan - Americans take Saipan.

1944年的今天，美国在塞班战役中拿下塞班岛。

When the scorner, the rejecter of truth, has become presumptuous; when the routine of work in the various money-making lines is carried on without regard to principle; when the student is eagerly seeking knowledge of everything but his Bible, Christ comes as a thief.{DA 635.3

当讥诮和拒绝真理的人，到了任意妄为时，当追求财利者罔顾按道义经营谋利时，当学人正在兢兢业业地研究各种知识，而单把圣经丢在一边时，基督要像贼一样来临。